2024 NFL Week 16 action report: Patrick Mahomes injury causes chaos in books

Since the midpoint of the 2022-23 season — two seasons worth of games — no team has been betting on points better than the Detroit Lions. Heading into Week 13 of the season, the Lions were not only 32-9 straight up (SU), but also 32-9 against the spread (ATS).

However, Detroit has failed to rally in each of its last three games – two ATS losses and one push. So does that keep bettors off the Lions in NFL Week 16 odds, road vs. Chicago Bears?

Well, no.

“That doesn’t stop anyone from betting on the Lions in this area. The public still loves the Lions,” said Joey Feazel, head of football trading at Caesars Sports.

Oddsmakers and keen bettors give their insights on Lions vs. Bears and even smaller matchups — the Houston Texans vs. the Kansas City Chiefs and the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. the Baltimore Ravens — as we dive into the NFL Week 16 betting rugs.

Swing Shift

When Patrick Mahomes exited the Chiefs’ 21-7 win over Cleveland with an ankle injury in the fourth quarter, the linebackers had to do their math again in Week 16 of the NFL. Last week, as Caesars Sports wrote the scores to look at this week’s games, Chiefs opened the game at home with 4 points.

After Mahomes’ injury, and the high expectation that he won’t play this week, Caesars reopened Sunday night at Texans -2.

“We have a decent amount of Texans at 2,” Feazel said.

That led to Caesar moving Houston to 3. That’s a 7-point swing from the forward line. Which sounds about right, considering we’re talking about Patrick Mahomes.

So on Tuesday, when Mahomes practiced and indicated he hoped to play Saturday, the pendulum made another big swing, toward Kansas City (13-1 SU/6-8 ATS).

“Now we’ve seen the line go from -3 Texans to -3 Chiefs. Our opinion is that Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league,” Feazel said, while adding a caveat this season. “But this year, the Chiefs still don’t count on winning games.

Because as Feazel added, KC’s offense isn’t as explosive this year. Nevertheless, the community will still play in Chiefs vs. Houston (8-6 SU/6-8 ATS) this Saturday first at 1pm ET.

“It is not surprising that we see the money of Chiefs, it is in line with the Under,” said Feazel.

However, the value has really increased in this game, thanks to Mahomes who seems to be available now. The total opened at 41.5, fell to 39.5, then rebounded to 42 during the week.

All things considered, the Under has scored in Kansas City’s last three games.

NFL Rocks on FOX

FOX is home to many notable matchups in NFL Week 16 odds. We’ll get back to that Lions-Bears game soon, but there are two other contests that will attract more bettors.

The first is the Steelers vs. Ravens, 4:30 pm ET Saturday. Caesar opened Baltimore -7, went to -6.5 on Sunday evening and -6 on Monday. As of Wednesday night, the spread is Ravens -6 (-115).

“The Steelers were able to steal that first win against Baltimore,” Feazel said, referring to Pittsburgh’s 18-16 win at home in Week 11. “This week, we see a lot of money for the Ravens, which is not money. To be surprised, this becomes a place for revenge.

“Some are betting on the Steelers’ money, but most of the action the Ravens spread, combined with the Under. And I think the Ravens’ money will be worse if George Pickens doesn’t stay in Pittsburgh.”

Pickens, the Steelers’ leading receiver, is questionable with a hamstring injury. He missed last week’s loss in Philadelphia. Pittsburgh is 10-4 SU and ATS, while Baltimore is 9-5 SU/7-6-1 ATS.

Sunday’s primetime slot on FOX, at 1 p.m. ET, is the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders. The Eagles (12-2 SU/9-5 ATS) are on a 10-game winning streak, going 7-3 ATS in that span.

Washington (9-5 SU/8-5-1 ATS) has won its last two games following a three-game skid. But Jayden Daniels and Co. didn’t impress in a 20-19 win over New Orleans last week.

“The Commanders were 7-point favorites last week and almost lost two quarterbacks,” Feazel said. “We’re seeing a lot of money for the Eagles, which isn’t surprising, as the Eagles are taking over as the NFC favorites.”

Indeed, Philly earned +200 in the NFC, surpassing Detroit (+230). The Eagles also moved to No. 2 in the Super Bowl odds at +430, behind the favorite Buffalo (+400).

Lame Lions

Detroit has lost a boatload of key injuries on defense this year, especially offensive defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, who suffered a season-ending broken leg in Week 6. The Lions (12-2 SU/9-4-1 ATS) had 15 defensive players on injured reserve.

Show it at home in Week 15 vs. Buffalo. Josh Allen & Co. they racked up yards and points in a 48-42 victory.

However, Detroit opened as a 7-point road favorite vs. Chicago (4-10 SU/7-6-1 ATS) in Week 16 NFL odds, 1 pm ET kickoff on FOX. Lions died at -6.5 on Tuesday in Caesar.

Feazel noted a slight hesitation in the Lions, which is why this line went down. But as noted above, the public betting crowd is in Detroit this week, or perhaps not for the usual reason.

“That probably has more to do with the enemy than the confidence of the Lions,” said Feazel.

Detroit is also moving David Montgomery, whose season is likely over with an MCL injury.

“That’s going to have an impact, and that’s why we’re seeing less money in the game,” Feazel said.

The total rose earlier this week, from 46.5 to 48.5. But then it supported the note at 48.

NFL Sharp Side

Randy McKay’s first game bet this week is for two teams, 6 points. For those who are not familiar, a tire bet is similar to a parlay but there is a very good point spread in the betting groups.

With that good spread comes a small fee. But humor can be a rewarding career. Therefore, McKay takes the Denver Broncos +8.5/Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 as the tip-off game. Denver travels to face the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday night, while Cincinnati is at home vs. Cleveland on Sunday.

“Denver comes into this game much healthier than the LA team that won earlier in the year in Denver. It’s two different teams to close out the season,” McKay said. “And Cincinnati will have a lot of offense against a Cleveland team that goes with their third-string QB, Dorian Thompson-Robinson.”

The Browns announced Tuesday the benching of Jameis Winston, who sat out the last seven games after Deshaun Watson suffered an Achilles injury.

McKay is back again in the Steelers-Ravens tilt on Saturday, taking Pittsburgh +6.5. But as Feazel noted, McKay said to pay attention to who is and isn’t playing.

“Look at the injury report here, with [wideout] George Pickens and TJ Watt at safety,” McKay said, noting that Pickens (hamstring) and Watt (ankle) are questionable. .”

Finally, McKay favors Carolina +4.5 at home against Arizona.

“Carolina was seeded as the favorite last week vs. Dallas, but now it’s back to being the underdog,” McKay said. “QB Bryce Young was playing well before last week, and he won’t have much of a problem against Arizona’s defense.”

I Like To Be Betrayed Too Much And I Can’t Lie

Maybe the high rollers are spending some of their money this week on holiday gifts. As of Wednesday night, Caesars Sports had just one six-number bet worth noting in the NFL Week 16 odds.

A Nevada customer placed $125,000 on the Eagles -3 (-125) versus the Commanders. If the Eagles win more than 3, then the bettor will win $100,000, for a total payout of $225,000.

Here’s what’s left from Monday night’s NFL Week 15: $40,000 on Raiders +5.5 (-105) vs. Falcons. Atlanta didn’t play well at all, and in fact, the Falcons benched QB Kirk Cousins ​​after the score, but won 15-9.

So the bettor didn’t get the cover. And there is a lesson to be learned here. The Raiders closed as 6- or 6.5 underdogs, depending on where you bet — it was -6 at Caesars. That half/full point proved critical. A bet of +6 simply pushes the return, and +6.5 would have won.

If you are betting the underdog, and the line is +5.5, maybe you can wait until the kick-off and see if you can get +6 or better. A little public service announcement.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a respected journalist in the national sports betting area. He is based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas

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