2024 College Football picks Week 6: Bet Penn State, Navy, Minnesota to be stacked

Week 6 of college football is here, and while I don’t know if we’ll get another thriller like Georgia-Bama, there are still plenty of places to bet for some money.

This week, I’m looking at a few Big Ten matchups and a battle between two service schools.

Can Penn State put up a big number against struggling UCLA? Will Minnesota hold firm against the Trojans?

Let’s dive into my best bets for this weekend of games.

(All times ET)

Saturday, October 5

UCLA @Number 7 Penn State (noon, FOX app and FOX Sports)

I will agree; this is a little bet about me being a stubborn mule.

UCLA is wrong. The Bruins have scored four touchdowns in four games. They also rank 128th in points per drive on defense. However, they easily put together two straight games against LSU and Oregon, two teams that, on paper, should have knocked them out.

But this week, UCLA should be dominated.

Penn State ranks 13th in points per drive on offense, and that unit is showing a better understanding of how to make explosive plays than last season. Quarterback Drew Allar is completing 71% of his passes, while Penn State’s running game ranks 15th in rushing success rate. The Nittany Lions defense remains one of the best in the country. Ranked third in overall efficiency and 11th in points per drive.

This game should be 49-7 for Penn State.

The state has a home advantage. UCLA, on the other hand, played its latest game on Saturday night and according to the clocks inside the players this week, this is a 9 am matchup for the Bruins. Oh, and it’s 2500 miles away. UCLA has been beaten, and quarterback Ethan Garbers is questionable.

UCLA is in a bad spot this weekend, and I’ll bet on Penn State for it.

PICK: Penn State (-28) to win by more than 28 points

Navy @ Air Force (noon, CBS)

Navy is very good this season and is on pace for 10 wins.

The Midshipmen rank 10th in the sport in net yards per play, while fourth in points per drive. They have moved away from their traditional case of running, running and some more running. Instead, they threw the ball less this season.

They already have 44 pass attempts this year, and Horvath has completed 30 of them. Navy is a good team and they play a bad Air Force team. And calling the Air Force bad can be pretty cool.

The Falcons are 0-4 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), failing to cover the spread against FBS teams by 13 points. Air Force is 129th in points per drive and not the best on defense.

I like Navy to win and cover this game.

PICK: Navy (-10) to win by more than 10 points

No. 11 USC @ Minnesota (7:30 p.m., BTN)

This is my situational bet. USC is in the playoff spot and Minnesota gets to play a team that isn’t Iowa or Michigan.

The Trojans are 4-1 after Saturday afternoon’s win over Wisconsin in a game with a slightly tricky score. USC was down 21-10 when Wisconsin got the ball after a three-and-out to start the third quarter. Wisconsin punted and USC scored three touchdowns on the next three possessions. Now, USC is on the road this weekend, and next weekend is a big contest against Penn State at the Coliseum.

Minnesota will benefit greatly from not playing two teams that can win ditches like Iowa and Michigan. SC’s offensive line is brutal this season; Minnesota is sixth in offensive line pressure and 32nd overall in points per drive. The Trojans easily have the best passing offense the Gophers have faced, but Minnesota’s defense ranks 16th in offense. They stick together and defend passes well.

If USC’s offensive line can’t defend, then it’s an easy task for Minnesota. Also, and this is a product of USC’s offensive line, the Trojans are not good at rebounding.

The Gophers’ offense doesn’t create explosive plays, but they also outplay two of the top five defenses in efficiency. USC’s defense has improved from last season, but has issues stopping the run (remember the Michigan game). Additionally, it doesn’t force long third downs, which is not where Minnesota wants to be.

With all of this in mind, Minnesota should be able to come up with a game plan that they would like to upset. Run the ball with a play action pass.

I’ll take the Gophers to close.

PICK: Minnesota (+8.5) to lose by less than 8.5 points, or win outright

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle at the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @Geoff Schwartz.

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