2024 College Football picks Week 15: Back to low-scoring first half Georgia-Texas

We’ll learn more in college football Week 15.

Fans and bettors will find out if Georgia can win back-to-back games against Texas, if Ashton Jeanty can add more yards to his already ridiculous season and if my Ducks have what it takes to go undefeated.

And boy, what fun we’re going to have sweating it out until the end.

But first, let’s get into my best bets for conference championship weekend.

(All times ET)

FRIDAY, DEC. 6

No. 19 UNLV @ No. 10 Boise State (8 p.m., FOX and The FOX Sports app)

I’ll bet on playing in the Mountain West Conference championship game.

This is a rematch of the previous game where Boise State won 29-24 in Las Vegas. The tournament is played on the green at Albertson Stadium in the cold night air. I have a betting system where I automatically fade teams from Southern California (like UCLA and USC) when they go to the Pacific Northwest or the Mountains in November.

It’s cold and bitter and these warm weather teams are not for you. The same can be said for UNLV in this matchup.

Rebels head north from the warm to the cold, and may have the same fate. The reason I’m not betting on Boise State is because I don’t like how the Broncos have been playing lately. They’ve won close, and they don’t put together bad teams. Their all-rounder Ashton Jeanty has been beaten but still gets a ton of carries. He has played fewer than 30 games just once in the last seven games. He’s going to get the ball on Friday night and UNLV knows it.

Jeanty may get his due because he’s incredibly talented, but UNLV will be ready for that.

The Rebels will trade to block him, which will open up the passing game for Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen to hit play-action passes. UNLV ranks 110th in the country in allowing passing plays of more than 10 yards. The Rebels are tied for 93rd in passing games allowed over 20 yards and 57th in passing games allowed over 30 yards. You get the picture. They allow a ton of explosive passing plays.

So I’m taking Boise State’s quarterback to throw for more than 219 passing yards. UNLV tries to stop the run, which will allow opportunities for passing plays.

PICK: Maddux Madsen Over 219 yards passing

SATURDAY, DEC. 7

No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 2 Texas (4pm, ABC)

This will be an exciting SEC conference title game between two rivals that met earlier in the season.

Georgia won the game 30-15 at Texas, showing the ability to attack the Longhorn offensive line to cloud the Texas game plan. The Dawgs went up 23-0 and Texas closed to 23-15 before Georgia regained control.

Will this game play out the same way on Saturday afternoon?

I don’t always believe that past matchups should dictate current opinion. Teams are rarely the same. And this is even more true in Texas than in Georgia.

After the Georgia game, Texas committed to running the ball as the primary focus of its offense. Quintrevion Wisner, the Longhorns’ quarterback in the second half of the season, has rushed at least 17 times in four of the five games since the Georgia loss, with 26 and 33 in his past two games.

The Longhorns also have a Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line, and even without left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr, they should be able to avenge their previous performance against the Bulldogs and run the ball better. Being able to rush the ball also keeps the offense away from Quinn Ewers – which Texas likes.

Georgia’s offense wants to run the football for the same reasons as Texas’ and that is to establish a line of scrimmage and keep the offense from being a Carson Beck show. If Beck has to throw more, the offense could be worse.

So both teams want to run hard against a good defense. Both want to prevent their quarterbacks from making mistakes. I believe that both teams will start the game with game plans to get along in the rematch.

I like the first half under 23.5.

PICK: Fewer than 23.5 first half points scored by both teams combined

No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 1 In Oregon (8 p.m., CBS)

Instead of taking sides with or against my alma mater, Oregon, I will look at the value. Penn State’s total team, to be exact.

I don’t believe the Nittany Lions will score more than three touchdowns in this game.

First, the offense has struggled to score in the past three games against Ohio State (twice) and Michigan, both of which Oregon is close to. Penn State, despite having good offensive numbers, doesn’t produce enough explosive plays in these games. The Nittany Lions can’t block well enough, which should be a huge advantage for Oregon’s talented and deep defensive line.

Oregon’s defense ranks second in sack rate and the defense just sacked Washington’s quarterback 10 times on Saturday.

Penn State’s offense is all about running the ball well and opening tight end Tyler Warren. If the Nittany Lions don’t succeed on first down, they put themselves in positions they don’t want to be in and pass the ball in situations they have to throw to.

Oregon’s pass defense is impressive. When it comes to effective defense, the Ducks rank first in contested target percentage, second in wide open target percentage, fifth in passer rating and second in completion percentage. If they can limit the rush and limit the wide receiver’s production, and assume Tyler Warren can get his own, it’s unlikely that Penn State will score 22.5 points.

I like Penn State Under 22.5 points.

PICK: Penn State Under 22.5 points scored

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle at the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @Geoff Schwartz.

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