2024 College Football picks Week 11: Back to Oregon for early start, Iowa to cover

If you’ve been following my reviews, then you know that I love finding great places to bet in Oregon.

Before I played lineman in the NFL, I played for the Ducks. So I’m always forced to back my team with a smart bet. Even more exciting is that Oregon is ranked No. 1 in the first College Football Playoff game to be aired.

But my pick for Sunday 11 is Eugene. I’m also looking at Colorado and an Iowa team whose offense could be better than you think.

Let’s dive into my best bets this week!

(All times ET)

Saturday, Nov. 9

No. 20 In Colorado @ Texas Tech (4 p.m., FOX and The FOX Sports app)

Colorado’s offense is unstoppable when the Buffaloes play a team like Texas Tech.

Home or road, it doesn’t matter if teams don’t hit the passer or have the ability to cover Colorado’s wide receiver options. While Texas Tech’s defense played better in the road win against Iowa State, the Red Raiders don’t profile to stop Colorado.

They rank 107th in defensive points per drive, 127th in pressure rate (how many times they get to the quarterback) and 115th in damage rate (TFLs, pass deflections, forced fumbles). Simply put, they rarely force the opposing offense into mistakes or missed points. Tech allowed 35 to TCU two weekends ago and 59 to Baylor before that game.

Colorado’s offense, which is a passing unit, is up. Shedeur Sanders has been great, and Travis Hunter is amazing. Buffs also have other receiving stones that are difficult to guard. The four primary targets are all averaging at least 12.6 yards per reception.

The Buffs scored 34 points against Cincinnati in their last game, 34 against Arizona and 48 against a UCF team that was close to the same numbers as Texas Tech.

I’ll take the Colorado Over 33.5 team value.

PICK: Colorado team total Over 33.5 points scored

Maryland @No. 1 In Oregon (7pm, BTN)

Oregon is the best team in the country.

Ducks do not have many weaknesses and tend to play certain types of games. They go out and move forward and close. They are third in the country in first half points, averaging just under 24 points. Their defense is 25th in the country in the first half, too, allowing less than 10 points per game. The Ducks also averaged 3.8 points in the third quarter. And if they’ve been winning by a lot of touchdowns on the break, they tend to shut down on purpose.

So let’s bet on that. I’ll take Oregon to close out the first half against Maryland.

Maryland is out, so the Terrapins may have some juice. But they don’t run the ball well or produce explosive plays. That doesn’t seem like a winning combination on the road.

Maryland’s defense ranks 77th in points per drive without a heartbeat on its defensive line. On offense, Maryland’s offensive line allows pressures and ranks 81st in rushing rate allowed. Just a bad matchup for a fast-starting Oregon team.

So Oregon -14.5 in the first half.

PICK: Oregon -14.5 1st half

Iowa @ UCLA (9 p.m., FOX and The FOX Sports app)

Did you know Iowa is on trial in 2024? Iowa is 45th in points per game and 28th in rushing yards behind Kaleb Johnson’s 7.52 yards per attempt this season. Johnson has nearly 1,300 yards in just eight games.

Iowa made a change at quarterback, going with Brendan Sullivan. He’s smaller, better with his legs and has an arm with more zip on the ball. Sin has changed for the better. The Hawkeyes’ offense also ranks 31st on third down because they win more first and second downs, allowing for easier third down conversions. Iowa’s defense is worse than usual. However, it still ranks 10th in points per drive and is very good at limiting explosive plays.

UCLA’s offense was terrible in the first month of the season but has picked up lately. The Bruins scored 35 on Rutgers and dropped 27 on Nebraska. The offense is largely led by quarterback Ethan Garbers and you can’t be one-sided against Iowa’s defense. UCLA’s rushing touchdown rate is dead last in the country, and the Bruins are a poor third down.

Their defense is good at limiting blowout plays, but from ground to ground, it’s fine. They also faced Rutgers and Nebraska in recent weeks, and Iowa is much better on offense than those teams.

I also like the consistency of Iowa’s short week training.

First-year UCLA head Deshaun Watson didn’t practice last week and Iowa will be better prepared. UCLA is also 121st in the nation in penalties per game; Iowa is fourth.

I like Iowa to win and cover.

PICK: Iowa (-6) to win by more than 6 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle at the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @Geoff Schwartz.

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