2024 CFP quarterfinal picks, predictions: Georgia to win, cover vs. Notre Dame

We’re down in college football’s version of the Elite Eight, as we await four exciting quarterfinal games next week.

The first round was chalk, all four favorites won easily and the cover four as well. These games were reduced in terms of competition. But the atmosphere of having these playoff games on campus is amazing, and hopefully the energy in college football will allow more games to be hosted by the top seeds going forward.

Now, here’s a simple and obvious fix that can help make these lottery games much better going forward. Just rate the teams from No. 1 to 12 and don’t try to reward the conference winners.

We have top-seeded Oregon as the underdog and No. 5 seed Texas as a two-touchdown favorite. With that being said, let’s hope for some better games as we try to find winners in the quarterfinals.

TUESDAY, DEC. 31

No. 6 Penn State (-11, O/U 53) vs. No. 3 Boise State

Are any of these underdogs likely to fight back? The 6th seed is a double-digit favorite here, so here’s a prime example of this seeding tournament.

Yes, Boise State standout running back Ashton Jeanty ran poorly this year, but this is a big step up from what he’s used to seeing on a weekly basis. Boise State traveled to Oregon in early September and lost by a field goal in a surprising performance. Penn State demolished SMU in Round 1, but despite winning 38-10, the Nittany Lions only produced 325 yards on 18 first downs.

I expect Penn State to win and advance, but I’ll go under 53 points overall.

I think the Nittany Lions’ lack of success on offense, combined with a strong defense, will prevent this from being a high-scoring game.

PICK: Under 53 points scored by both teams combined

WEDNESDAY, JAN. 1

No. 5 Texas (-13.5, O/U 52) vs. No. 4 Arizona State

Another big point spread here. Texas won at home against Clemson by 14 runs in the opening round, as the Longhorns were putting up the same number and needed a scoring position to shut it down.

Arizona State was expected to win just a handful of games this year and it ended up being one of the most remarkable stories in recent college football memory.

But I will take a point here.

The Sun Devils have a good running game and should be able to keep the clock running if they can run well. They also do a great job defending the run, which can put the game in the hands of Texas quarterback Quinn Eers. Since the big favorites win and cover easily in the first round, I think they’re stretching this line a lot further than it should be.

PICK: Arizona State (+13.5) to lose by less than 13.5 points, or to win outright

No. 8 State of Ohio (-2.5, O/U 55) vs. No. 1 In Oregon

This is a rematch of the October contest when Oregon won 32-31 at home. Oregon certainly didn’t catch a break in this tournament. The Ducks are the only undefeated team, and now their reward is playing perhaps the best second team in the country in the quarterfinals.

I’m leaning on Oregon to win the game, but my official bet will be on the Over.

The first meeting saw each team rush for nearly 500 yards and around seven yards per play. The last time we saw Oregon, the Ducks gave up seven yards per play to Penn State and nearly 300 yards rushing. I expect a lot of fireworks here.

SELECT: More than 55 points scored by both teams combined

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-2, O/U 44)

Here’s another example of a conference champion who might be wondering if it’s better for them to lose their conference title game.

Georgia takes on a Notre Dame team that may have been overlooked because critics are still judging the Irish for their past failures in the big leagues.

But is this group different? It is possible.

But I’ll go with Kirby Smart and more time to prepare and a Georgia team that played a tougher schedule than Notre Dame.

PICK: Georgia (-2) to win by more than 2 points

Will Hill, host of the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a broadcaster on VSiN, and the Goldboys Network.

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