Jason McIntyre
HERD Co-Host and FOX Sports Betting Analyst
We’re down to the final four teams in the first 12-team College Football Playoff.
Although most of the games so far have not been very exciting, I have faith that we will get our money’s worth in the last two rounds.
And speaking of money, I have a few wagers that I think will put some cash in our pockets. Check out my best bets for the Playoff semifinal round.
(All times ET)
THURSDAY, JAN. 9
No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
In the first round of the playoffs, the edge went to home teams, who went 4-0 against the spread (ATS). In the second round, the winning teams all lost, and Arizona State was the only one to cover the spread.
So where’s the big deal this week?
The first to 20 here wins the game. It may only take 17. We’re talking about two quarterbacks who are limited in the air. Riley Leonard threw for 90 yards against Georgia, and Drew Allar hasn’t had a 250-yard game all season.
The offensive strategy will be simple for both — just don’t confuse it.
When it comes to Notre Dame, the Irish didn’t turn the ball over against Indiana or Georgia. In fact, they didn’t do anything bad against the Bulldogs, punting after Georgia fumbled at their own 20 late in the first half and running the second half kickoff seconds later to tie the game.
At Penn State, Allar fumbled when the Nittany Lions were up 14-0, and that allowed Boise State to stay in the game and stay longer than it should have.
Aside from the defensive offenses, I expect both defenses to contain both running attacks, and as such, I look at the Under for the first half and the Under for the full game, as well. Because college football teams don’t have to file official injury reports, it’s unclear whether the two standouts will play. That’s PSU edge rusher Abdul Carter, who will be the 15th overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft, and Notre Dame’s leading rusher, Jeremiah Love, who has scored 16 touchdowns on the season.
I’m leaning Notre Dame aside, but I’d like ML, since this one has 17-16 written all over it.
PICK: Under 45 points scored by both teams combined
SELECT: Notre Dame (-129) Moneyline
Can Notre Dame slow down Penn State’s running game?
FRIDAY, JAN. 10
No. 8 State of Ohio vs. No. 5 Texas (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
No team has looked better than Ohio State through two playoff games.
In the month since the loss to Michigan, Chip Kelly has changed the offense to attack in the air, which will soften the defensive front and lead to big plays in the game on the ground.
However, this number is way, way too high for the Buckeyes -6. If you bring OSU back here, you’re paying a tax on the Buckeyes because they’ll be the big bet. If you had projected the Texas-OSU semifinal before the Playoffs, the line would have been OSU -1 or -2 by a lot.
Freshman star Jeremiah Smith has five TDs and 290 yards receiving in two playoff games. He will likely face Texas All-American cornerback Jahdae Barron, who has allowed 35 catches on 65 targets and zero touchdowns allowed this season.
Texas sports a high rate of offense, which is a dangerous proposition against Smith & Co. Will he reverse the trend and double team with the best receiver in college football?
It seems pretty clear that QB Will Howard wants to target Smith early and support the defense. It has worked for the last two games. After that, the Buckeyes gave up TreVeyon Henderson, who averaged eight yards per carry against Tennessee and 11 against Oregon. The case from the Michigan debate is unstoppable.
I usually put Over here, but it seems too obvious. And the obvious: Texas should have a huge home field advantage to play at the Cowboys’ house. The arctic blast expected to hit America this week could have an impact on things in Dallas, which has historically not handled snow and ice well. It can make travel difficult – especially for people traveling by plane.
The reason I can’t bet against Ohio State is because the Buckeyes’ defensive turnovers have been awful since the loss to Oregon earlier in the season. They played one-man coverage, vulnerable to big plays, and Oregon lit them up with four receivers making one catch of 30 yards or more. In two looks, they kept everything in front of them, and Oregon had only one such play in the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes had zero sacks in the first meeting with Oregon; they had eight in the quarterfinals.
If you want to restore Texas without the principle that it is too big to overreact, go for it. I think there are two ways to play this. It’s safe to tease Ohio State down to a pick and then tease Penn State up to +8. Another option is to reverse the Buckeyes by 6.
Why?
The best team Texas played this season was Georgia and the Longhorns lost to the Dawgs twice. They’ve been leaking oil for a few weeks, struggling against Texas A&M on the road, then letting Clemson sit and needing double overtime to put away ASU.
We know OSU is going to score. Can Texas keep up?
PICK: Score OSU -6 to pick, Penn State +2 to +8
PICK: Ohio State (-6) to win by more than 6 points
Jason McIntyre is a betting analyst for FOX Sports who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before coming to FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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