2024 CFP action report: Ohio State’s ‘impressive’ play causes linebacking

The College Football Playoff semifinal odds are showing respect to Ohio State.

And rightfully so, based on the Buckeyes’ performance in two rounds of the expanded 12-team tournament.

“Ohio State has been very impressive twice. The team has played better than expected,” said DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello. “And they play with a chip on their shoulder. They look really good now.”

Avello provided his insights into the odds for each of the College Football Playoff semifinals.

New No. 1

When the College Football Playoff started, Ohio State was the 8th seed. There were many who thought No. 9 Tennessee would beat the host Buckeyes in the first round.

But Ohio State went on to win 42-17. Then, in the quarterfinals, at the Rose Bowl, the Buckeyes went on a 34-0 run late in the second quarter and blew away a 41-21 win over Oregon.

Now, the 8th seed is the favorite in DraftKings Sportsbook’s CFP championship odds, even money (+100). Which means if Ohio State lifts the trophy on Jan. 20, then a $100 bet will win $100 (total payout of $200).

First, however, comes Jan’s semi-final. 10 against No. 5 seed Texas.

Based on its two exciting games so far, Ohio State is a 6-point favorite. That’s despite the game being played on the Longhorns’ home turf at the Cotton Bowl, three hours from the Austin campus.

“Before the playoffs started, this game was probably close to Ohio State -1/-1.5. But the way the Buckeyes played and the way Texas played against Arizona State, that’s the reason for the big change in the line,” Avello. said.

Texas jumped out to a 14-0 lead against Arizona State and went up 17-3 at halftime in the Peach Bowl quarterfinals. But the Longhorns ended up being dragged into overtime, tied at 24.

Texas held on for a 39-31 double OT victory.

The early action seems to reflect the bettors’ confusion.

“I wouldn’t say there’s any one side that hits hard. I think the 6 makes people think a little bit,” Avello said.

Pluck of the Irish

You can’t really attribute Notre Dame’s continued existence to the luck of the Irish. Coach Marcus Freeman’s team knocked off Indiana 27-17 in the first round, then held Georgia back for a 23-10 quarterfinal victory in the Sugar Bowl.

So No. 7 seed Notre Dame is a slight 1.5 point favorite vs. No. 6 Penn State in the College Football Playoff semifinals, heading into the Jan. 9 Orange Bowl contest.

Avello isn’t sure where bettors will take the point spread. But you know this matchup and the next Cotton Bowl will be a pretty good bet.

“When these games are split, they write a lot of money,” he said, before moving on early on Notre Dame vs. Penn State. “So far, we’re seeing a little play at Notre Dame -1.5 and Over 46.5.”

I Like Big Bets and I Can’t Lie

A big — really big — Caesars Sports seven-figure bet came in during conference championship week. A Louisiana customer staked a whopping $1.5 million on Texas +390 to win the national title.

The Longhorns, now the +290 second choice at Caesars, behind +100 favorite Ohio State, have won twice for the big money bettor. If Texas upsets Ohio State and gets past Penn State or Notre Dame in the title game, the bettor reaps a windfall of $5.85 million, for a total payout of $7.35 million.

Also, there is still a very modest bet at Caesars: $500 on Notre Dame +8000 (80/1) to win the playoff. That bet was made on Sept. 9, the day after Notre Dame’s shocking 16-14 home loss to Northern Illinois.

The Fighting Irish haven’t lost since and, in fact, have been dominant. And if Notre Dame claims the championship, then the bettor makes a profit of $40,000.

For comparison: The Fighting Irish are now +400 to win the title, third of the four remaining teams. So it would take a $10,000 bet to win $40,000.

That customer should feel good about now.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a respected journalist in the national sports betting area. He is based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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